Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
