A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
